På vetefronten inget nytt : Skördar ett pristak rysk ekonomi?

This study examines the economic impact of imposing a price cap sanction on Russian wheat export, focusing on the effect on Russia’s profit loss, global market equilibrium and domestic wheat acreage. Using a theoretical equilibrium model, combined with empirical elasticity estimates, the results show that even moderate sanction severity significantly reduces Russian export profits, while global prices spike due to inelastic demand. It proposes that a severe price cap cutting Russian wheat prices to 33$/tonne (90% of original market price), would cause substantial profit losses (almost 9$ billion annually), with supplied quantity decreasing by 17.1% and domestic acreage with approximately 4.4 million hectares. Concurrently, an alternative method is used to estimate the optimal sanction level, where it concludes Russia would cease its wheat export at a price cap of 121.13$/ton. This leads to a policy recommendation of implementing a price cap at 130$/tonne at roughly 60% of the current market price – resulting in a 6.2 $ billion profit loss for Russia, while still maintaining global market stability. This study provides a theoretical guideline to better understand sanctions as an economic tool and how and when to implement it in the best possible way.