The Long-Term Impact of the 2018 Montecito Mudslides on Residential Property Values

This thesis explores the long-term effects of the 2018 Montecito Mudslides on residential properties in Montecito, California. I assessed home values that were affected based on damage severity and location using a manually collected dataset of 238 homes with biannual Zillow Zestimate data from 2015 to 2025. Utilizing a Difference-in-Difference approach, along with an event-study regression, I discovered that damaged homes initially declined in value but experienced a compelling rebound in the following years. Recovery trends varied across neighborhoods with properties in close proximity to creeks showing higher levels of damage and weaker recovery. A final model highlights the predictive power of the property characteristics, home size, lot size, value per square-foot, and the year in which the home was built. My results suggest that high-end real estate in disaster prone areas can show resilience overtime, contributing to research on housing markets, risk perception, and recovery.