Leveraging Underutilized Land for Sustainable Housing Development in the San Francisco Bay Area: Assessing Opportunities and Constraints in Low-VMT Areas to Align Housing Production with Climate and Equity Goals

This report assesses underutilized land parcels in the San Francisco Bay Area to identify opportunities for housing development aligned with California’s climate, transportation, and equity goals. The research focuses specifically on parcels situated within areas that are characterized by reduced automobile dependency due to proximity to transit, jobs, and amenities. Using geographic information systems (GIS), historical housing data, parcel valuation metrics, zoning analysis, and scenario modelling, the report categorizes parcels into three forms of underutilization: vacant parcels, parcels with low improvement-to-land value ratios, and parcels with minimal built coverage (below 25%). It also evaluates the effectiveness of current zoning regulations and examines housing allocation patterns in the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) process. There is substantial theoretical capacity for housing production in low-VMT zones; constraints such as regulatory complexities, redevelopment costs, methodological inconsistencies in defining low-VMT areas, and fragmented parcel ownership significantly limit development potential. The report shows stark trade-offs between strict environmental and equity-based criteria and feasible housing outcomes. There is a critical need for targeted zoning reforms, standardized VMT measurement methodologies, streamlined regulatory frameworks, and proactive investment strategies to unlock the latent potential of underutilized parcels.