Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome Outbreak Anticipation by a Rapid Synchronous Increase in Rodent Abundance in the Northwestern Argentina Endemic Region: Towards an Early Warning System for Disease Based on Climate and Rodent Surveillance Data

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an American emerging disease caused by the rodent-borne virus genus Orthohantavirus (Family: Hantaviridae: Order: Elliovirales Class: Bunyaviricetes). In Argentina, almost half of the HPS infections occur in the northwestern endemic region. In this study, we monitored rodent abundance during 2022 and 2023 in three sites with different sampling methods (removal trapping, live trapping and hunted rodents by domestic cats) to evaluate their relationship with human infections. We found a similar pattern of variation in rodent abundance across time, and particularly a synchronous rise of rodent abundance that anticipated an HPS outbreak in 2023. Our dynamic regression models revealed a positive relationship between HPS cases and rodent abundance with a three-month lag, as well as rainfall with an eight-month lag. Our results provide a framework for the planning and implementation of public health prevention campaigns based on climatology and rodent monitoring. Domestic cats bringing rodents into houses can be an overlooked risk factor, particularly if viral shedding of infected rodents is magnified by stress. HPS is a disease of public health concern due to its high mortality rate, the lack of a specific therapeutic treatment and no vaccine. Thus, prevention of infections is of the utmost importance.