Fembytesregelns påverkan på unga fotbollsspelare : Effekten på värdering och speltid i europeiska ligor

This study explores the impact of the permanent substitution rule change in professional football—from three to five allowed substitutions per match—on the playing time, market value, and transfer fees of young players. Focusing on U21 and U23 players across seven major European leagues from the 2014/15 to the 2023/24 season, the analysis uses a quantitative approach with regression analysis, difference-in-differences models, and event study design.The Difference-in-differences estimations show a large jump in market values for U21 and U23 players but no significant increase in minutes played. Event study results reveal a clear pre-trend in valuations and therefore, invalidating the DiD results and also show a drop in minutes per appearance after implementation. The conclusion made is that the five-substitution rule appears to have been used for load-management as intended and not for talent promotion. The estimated valuation increase is likely the result of shortcomings in the data inclusion.