Food security and sustainable agriculture: examining food self-sufficiency in Nepal amidst high rates of migration

The emergence of global food trade has ameliorated food insecurity in several countries including the reliance on food imports to meet the dietary needs of a country’s population. One factor that can affect domestic food production and food security is migration. Several studies have suggested that unprecedented high rates of migration from agricultural areas in Nepal has contributed to the observed agricultural decline. In fact, some districts in Nepal have experienced up to 40% outmigration and up to one third of the agricultural lands have been abandoned. Thousands of able-bodied men and women between 18 – 24 leave Nepal every day to seek employment in countries in the Middle East, Malaysia, and India. In this study, we evaluate the food system in Nepal and how migration, domestic food production, and trade have evolved over a few decades (1990-2021). Using datasets from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), my thesis analyzes the trends in domestic food production and imports of four main cereals (rice, wheat, maize, and millet which comprise ~70% of the dietary demand in Nepal) and the area of land used to harvest these crops. My research confirms that there has been a decline in the amount of land used for agriculture in Nepal since the 1990s including the increased use of fertilizers in domestic agriculture. I calculated the amount of water and land area that will be required for Nepal to achieve self-sufficiency, i.e., the demand for food is met via domestic food production. In Nepal, 53% more land (km2) and water input (m3) would be needed to achieve self-sufficiency. As the world population grows over the next few decades, my thesis considers the tradeoffs between over reliance on food trade vs. self-sufficiency to ensure food security and sustainable agricultural land and water management for future generations.