Системний ризик на ринку кредитних послуг України в умовах макрофінансової нестабільності

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of systemic risk manifestations in the credit services market of Ukraine under macrofinancial instability from 2014 to 2024. Given the multi-dimensional nature of systemic risk, the study explores interrelationships between major macroeconomicshocks and the state of the banking sector in Ukraine during three distinct crisis episodes: the banking crisis of 2014–2015, the COVID-19 pandemic shock of 2020, and the full-scale war from 2022 onwards.The comparative analysis identifies both standard and specific features of these crises' impact on credit market activity, credit portfolio quality, and financial resilience of Ukrainian banks. Using empirical data, the study models the influence of macroeconomic factors on the non-performing loan (NPL) ratioin corporate and retail segments, highlighting the primary drivers of systemic risk accumulation: 1) national currency devaluation; 2) inflation; 3) declining real household incomes; 4) GDP contraction.Additionally, the research substantiates the effectiveness of regulatory measures implemented by the National Bank of Ukraine in the area of macroprudential policy (capital conservation buffer, countercyclical capital buffer, subsidised credit programs, among others) aimed at mitigating systemic crises' impacts and stabilising the financial sector. The study also identifies structural issues underlying systemic credit risk in the corporate segment, indicating the need for comprehensive measures regarding problem debt restructuring. Furthermore, the authors propose integrating the Growth-at-Risk approach for assessing systemic risks in the credit market (Credit-at-Risk), enabling preventive responses to emerging threats and enhancing banking sector resilience. The research findings hold theoretical and practical significance for regulatory bodies and financial institutions, contributing to improved management of systemic risks in the credit services market amid prolonged macrofinancial shocks.