Trap Music and Overdose

Over one hundred thousand lives were lost in the United States during 2022 from drug overdoses (CDC, 2023). While previous studies examine socioeconomic and macroeconomic relationships, I have not found extensions to estimate a relationship between media influence and overdoses. I investigated the potential relationship by including a Google search trend index (a measure of relative state-level popularity of web searches) for trap music as a proxy for media influence of trap music. Trap music is a new mainstream subgenre of hip-hop which portrays a romanticized view of illicit substance sale and abuse. My logic is younger demographics are more likely to listen and be influenced by the subgenre, meaning high interest in the subgenre would be correlated with overdose rates for younger demographics. Employing a fixed effects model (and controlling for macroeconomic and socioeconomic variables) across 40 states from 2013-2023, I find a one standard deviation increase in Google search intensity (13.7 points) being associated with a 1.98 increase in drug overdose deaths per 100,000 for those aged 15-34 years, statistically significant at the 5 percent error level. Those aged 35-54 reflected no measurable relationship. Interestingly, I found no relationship between the number of opioid treatment program facilities and overdose. My findings suggest media trends are associated with overdose deaths in addition to socioeconomic and macroeconomic trends for young demographics.