The impact of increasingly frequent mid-winter thaw events on snowpack in Vermont

Global warming includes steady increasing temperatures and extreme warm weather and high humidity events. These thaw periods are becoming more common and stronger, posing a threat to the snowpack, and increasing flood danger. This study created a model of the snowpack in Underhill, Vermont using meteorological data. Thirty scenarios were run using synthetic meteorological forcing data representing monotonic climate change along with stronger thaw periods. Rising temperatures had a greater effect than relative humidity and precipitation rate on the snowpack. During the thaw periods there was an increased risk of flooding from more runoff being generated over a shorter period.