The Effects of Exogenous Factors on Quarterback Performance in the NFL

Quarterbacks in the National Football League (NFL) are arguably the most important position players on their team, as they handle the football on most offensive plays. A common theme in labor economics is to examine the effects exogenous factors have on worker performance. Since production is a function of labor and capital, and since labor is integral for economic growth, the effects of exogenous factors on human performance should be taken into consideration. I propose to examine the effects of extreme temperatures (≥ 90˚ F; ≤ 32˚ F) and wind speed on quarterback performance (as measured by their passer rating) using multiple regression analysis, incorporating entity-fixed effects and time-fixed effects with clustered standard errors. To avoid omitted variable bias and to isolate the effects of temperature and wind on quarterback performance, the model will incorporate additional causal factors including the quality of the offensive line, receivers, opponents’ defense, and head coach. I hypothesize that if exposed to extreme temperatures and higher wind speeds, quarterbacks will be subject to mitigated performance. The results of the analysis can assist the NFL with creating an optimal broadcasting schedule, help teams and players develop optimal game plans, and guide sports bettors with optimal wagers.