Crises combinées : comment les modéliser ?

The conference “Combined Crises: How to Model Them?”, rendered here as an article, offers a forward-looking reflection on systemic risks and their interconnection as “combined crises.” The increasing risks necessitate active anticipation—that is, “giving reality to the future.” To achieve this, the research outlined here unfolds in three main stages: first, the configuration of different models of “combined crises” based on the literature on systemic risks; then, the consolidation of the notion of “refuge sites” within the framework of risk planning, with particular emphasis on the case of large hospital sites in France; and finally, prospectively, the identification of the likely consequences of “combined crises” on other major sites that are currently largely monofunctional, such as those in the logistics sector.The article highlights the vulnerability of supply chains, as illustrated by the disruptions observed during the Covid-19 health crisis, and stresses the need to rethink the existing anticipatory measures (e.g., ORSEC plans, Vigipirate, plan Blanc, etc.) in an integrated manner. The dynamics of crises are described using the concept of the “triple gallop,” which synthesizes the simultaneous acceleration of climate change, biodiversity loss, and the consumption of natural resources. To support this analysis, forward-looking models derived from the Meadows report as well as pandemic-related mortality statistics are mobilized, thereby providing an order of magnitude for the scale of the impending collapses.A typology of risks, inspired by the mythological figures developed by Jean-Marc Cavedon, is established in correspondence with the numerous anticipatory and crisis management plans of hospital sites. Categories such as “Medusa, Pythia, Pandora, Cyclops, Cassandra, and Damocles” enable each class of risk to be positioned according to its probability and the severity of its consequences. This conceptual framework proves particularly pertinent for anticipating the future roles of health care establishments, which, since the beginning of the 21st century, have been confronted with successive crises and have adopted hybrid governance modes combining regulatory standards, risk management, and adaptation.Furthermore, with regard to foresight, the article examines the “four-scenario compasses” inspired by the work of Bruno Latour, David Holmgren, Pablo Servigné, and Sébastien Marot. These interpretative matrices allow for the positioning of competing possible futures, based on the intensity of climate disruptions and the decline in energy and resources. An interdisciplinary framework is thus established for rethinking territorial planning and governance. The research on ultra-local energies—which aims to transform certain public facilities into contributors to ultra-local Positive Energy Territories (TEPOS) through a mapping of energy deposits—is also summarized.Finally, the notion of “refuge sites” is advanced as a response to territorial inequalities in terms of risk and resilience to “combined crises.” It is postulated that densely concentrated hospital sites could be reconfigured to accommodate, on a large scale, the populations most vulnerable to the impending collapses—patients, caregivers, assistants, and other at-risk individuals. This article underscores the integration of principles of robustness with those of permaculture, with a view to constructing territories that are more resilient in the face of the challenges posed by major systemic disruptions in the future.