Current Trends in Biophysical Modeling of eDNA Dynamics for the Detection of Marine Species

ABSTRACTMarine pest introductions continue to occur and increase at accelerated rates, threatening the marine environment and blue economy. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is a tool for determining the presence of both indigenous and nonindigenous species, via the detection of genetic material that is shed into the local environment. Although eDNA approaches have gained widespread adoption in the last decade, fundamental knowledge gaps remain around factors that can influence the probability of detection, and how to optimize eDNA sampling in aquatic environments. Here, we partition eDNA research into four major research themes: eDNA concentration (shedding and decay), transport (advection and mixing), sampling design strategies, and the modeling of these dynamics. We review current developments and challenges in each theme with a focus on field sampling strategies and the use of biophysical models for understanding the movement of modeling eDNA in complex aquatic environments. We then introduce three modeling case studies from a large embayment where we (1) quantify the spatial and temporal variability of eDNA dispersion, (2) use biophysical models to inform a field sampling strategy, and (3) demonstrate a backtracking modeling technique to identify upstream DNA sources to an existing sample (monitoring) site. We conclude by identifying specific recommendations to help improve future eDNA studies. This work highlights how biophysical models can be applied to improve early detection and informing response and management decisions.