Association Between the Trajectories of the Atherogenic Index of Plasma and Prediabetes Progression to Diabetes: A Retrospective Cohort Study

XiXuan Cai, MingYing Xu, JieRu Chen, YueChun Mao, JingYu Hu, LuSha Li, JianJiang Pan, MengQi Jin, LiYing Chen Department of General Practice, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310020, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: LiYing Chen, Department of General Practice, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310020, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]: This study aims to analyze baseline profiles and longitudinal changes in Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP) among individuals with prediabetes to identify distinct AIP trajectories and assess their significance in predicting diabetes onset.Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from 8346 participants who underwent multiple general health checks. Utilizing latent class trajectory modeling and Cox proportional hazards analyses, it examined the association between the AIP index and health outcomes.Results: Over about 2 years, 2897 people progressed from prediabetes to diabetes. Individuals in the highest quartile of AIP had a higher diabetes risk compared to the lowest quartile (HR = 1.138, 95% CI1.013– 1.278). Trajectory analysis revealed three groups: low-stable, moderate-stable, and high-stable, based on AIP index. The moderate-stable group showed a 1.117-fold risk of diabetes progression (95% CI1.026– 1.217), while the high-stable group had an elevated risk (HR = 1.224, 95% CI1.059– 1.415).Conclusion: The study highlights a clear association between higher AIP index levels at baseline and an increased risk of diabetes progression. It underscores the significance of utilizing the AIP index as a predictive tool to identify those at risk, emphasizing the need for targeted preventive measures in managing diabetes progression.Keywords: retrospective cohort study, atherogenic index of plasma, prediabetes progression, diabetes