Russian Foreign Policy Narratives and Their Impact on the United States and the International Community

This study examines how Russian foreign policy narratives shape Western reactions, using the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine as case studies. While previous research has explored how narratives function in foreign policy, this study focuses on how Russia’s rhetorical strategies- such as deflection, defense, and justification- relate to Western reactions, defined here as public statements of condemnation, sanctions, or calls for behavioral change. The data for this study is composed of over 4,000 statements, speeches, press releases, and other key discourse from 70 different Russian and Western officials. Discourse analysis was used to detect key narratives in Russian statements, followed by thematic coding using an inductively developed codebook. Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was applied to examine potential relationships between narrative types and Western responses. Theoretically, the results are analyzed through a constructivist lens, considering how the use of these narratives shapes and constructs the relationships among actors. This study contributes to the growing literature on strategic narratives by showing how they operate not only as tools of state self-preservation but also as instruments that can shape the international environment. It challenges assumptions about the dominance of identity narratives, revealing their use to be much less frequent than indicated in existing literature. From a constructivist perspective, the results revealed that while identity plays a crucial role, it is not always directly present in narrative form. However, the results show that actors shape narratives purposefully in an attempt to influence the responses from other actors in the international realm. Additionally, the findings showed that justification narratives are more frequently associated with limited Western reactions, more likely trending towards statements of condemnation or disapproval. These findings suggest that understanding the role of narrative strategy helps clarify how states manage external pressures and influence adversarial reactions during periods of military escalation.