Rethinking "world wars" through a world-systems lens: a relational and contextual approach

What are the key characteristics of the current instabilities of the capitalist world-system, and how does it compare to previous periods that led to world wars? What factors are driving the similarities and differences between the present systemic chaos and earlier transitions in the world-system? What potential trajectories might the unfolding period of systemic instabilities take, and what balance of forces could emerge as dominant in shaping the world-system? Focusing on the foundational works of Wallerstein, Chase-Dunn, Goldstein, and Arrighi, this article critically re-evaluates the contemporary relevance and explanatory power of world-systems analysis. Its key contribution to world-systems literature lies in moving beyond the predominantly cyclical interpretations of world wars by integrating analytical tools, such as conceptual schemas and statistical evidence, with narrative approaches highlighting historical contingencies. Overall, contemporary systemic instabilities within the capitalist world-system are marked by the intensification of economic competition, geopolitical rivalries, and social discontent, reflecting historical patterns of systemic chaos during prior hegemonic transitions, yet distinguished by the unanticipated disruption of economic expansion since the 2010s, China’s unexpected rise alongside the fading influence Germany and Japan, the U.S.-China decoupling, the pivotal role of frontier technologies, and the fragmented character of heightened popular mobilization.