Exploring Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics with Agent-Based Modelling:The Impact of Design Strategies and Consumer Characteristics

In this paper, we present an agent-based simulation framework to assess the effect of battery electric vehicle optimal design methodologies employed by original equipment manufacturers, on their market share and customer uptake. First, we create demographically accurate customer agents representing their characteristics based on recent real-world data, whereby we implement a choice model enabling each agent to make purchases according to their preferences. Second, we develop company agents who design and manufacture their vehicles according to the different optimal design methodologies: vehicle-tailored and concurrent design. Finally, we compare the evolution of the market over multiple years to obtain final profitability of the different strategies and final consumer vehicle adoption, with respect to base scenarios. Our results show that leveraging concurrent design increases the attractiveness of electric vehicles for customers, leading to increases in sales compared to the traditional vehicle-tailored approach.