Ecological Niches Applied to Socioeconomic Phenomena: The Case of the Colombian Internal Conflict

Recent studies of the Colombian conflict have shown that struggle for resource accumulation and territorial control, in a very competitive and violent environment in which the illegal armed groups are involved, is crucial to their survival and development. Here, we applied a highly successful methodology from ecology (Ecological Niche Modelling) to the problem of identifying the ideal socioeconomic conditions for the presence of a Colombian illegal armed group, named the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). We analyzed some determining factors of FARC´s presence and permanence within the Colombian territory that reflect aspects of the socioeconomic dynamics and productive capacity at the municipality level. We found that regions with high suitability for the persistence of the FARC (those belonging to the niche) had a fiscal performance index considered as vulnerable and low per capita income levels. Additionally, to identify territories in dispute between armed groups, we compared territories with the presence of both the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) and the FARC. Our results show that the number of municipalities with suitable conditions for the persistence of the FARC was considerably lower following the signing of the Peace Agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC.