Crop-Specific Emission Projection Suggests Peaking of Agricultural N2O by the Middle Century

Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of N2O emissions and plays a crucial role in global greenhouse gas mitigation. In an increasingly populated world with growing food demands, a precise and high-resolution spatial prediction of agricultural N2O emissions becomes essential in reducing global emissions. In this study, an integrated assessment model coupled with the land cover downscaling module is employed to predict crop-specific N2O emissions at a 0.05° resolution under various SSP-RCP scenarios from 2025 to 2100. Our findings show that global agricultural N2O emissions will peak around 2065, ranging from 5.2 to 6.6 Tg N a–1. Corn cultivation is the primary N2O contributor, while rice production will produce fewer emissions and peak before 2025. The emission hotspots are concentrated in western Europe, India, eastern China, and the west coast and east-central region of the USA. By 2100, the crop-specific N2O emissions in China are predicted to decrease below the levels observed in 2015, while the emissions in the USA and India may double in some socio-economic pathways. Our projection of N2O emission patterns is supportive of implementing targeted policies and strategies to achieve global emission reduction targets.