Comparison of Enumeration and Sampling Methods in Creating Montana’s 2nd Congressional District

The 2020 decennial census data resulted in an increase from one to two congressional representatives in the state of Montana. The state underwent its redistricting process in 2021 in time for the November 2022 congressional elections, carving the state into two districts. In this talk we analyze the redistricting process and compare the adopted congressional map to the space of all other possible maps. In particular, we look at the population deviation, compactness and political outcomes of these maps. Since the space is small enough to enumerate, we also analyze how well the algorithms in the R package 'Redist' and the Python package 'Gerrychain' sample from the space of possible maps. This is joint work with Erin Szalda-Petree (former undergraduate student at UM) and Dave Patterson.