Conflict in the South China Sea: Examining Theoretical Explanations For US/China Rivalry

This paper examines the competitive dynamics between the United States and China in the strategically crucial South China Sea (SCS), focusing on underlying economic and geopolitical factors. The SCS is significant due to its rich resources, including extensive reserves of fossil fuels and rare-earth elements, alongside its role as a vital trade route for global shipping. The competition is intensified by the territorial claims of several regional actors, complicating the dynamics between these nuclear powers. Utilizing two theoretical frameworks, Structural Realism and Historical Materialism, the paper aims to explore why the United States and China are competing for control and influence over this vital maritime region. Structural Realism provides insight into the anarchic international system where state behavior is driven by the distribution of power, suggesting that as China emerges as a great power, the U.S. seeks to maintain its relative position in the international system. The analysis uses/builds upon data from the Correlates of War MIDs database. This paper also explores a second theoretical framework, Historical Materialism, which posits that economic motives underpin this competition, particularly as China's capitalist practices evolve and overlap with U.S. interests. First, this paper briefly addresses the discussion of Chinese capitalism, before using Freedom of Navigation operations as a proxy for conflict after exploration into direct confrontations for resources failed to bear fruit. Interestingly, this revealed that while direct competition for physical resources may be limited, the U.S. maintains a keen interest in securing shipping lanes and upholding international law in the area. The paper concludes that the rivalry is fundamentally rooted in the structures of power and economic interests, with the U.S. emphasizing stability and global order, while China leverages its growing economic and military prowess to assert its claims. Calls for further research, especially in refining economic conflict amongst nuclear states.