AUKUS & Critical Minerals:Countering China's Supply Chain Coercion

When the AUKUS security pact was announced in September 2021, President Joe Biden hailed it a “historic step”, emphasising that the trilateral pact was seeking to address “rapidly evolving threats” through “modern capabilities”. From Canberra, Prime Minister Scott Morrison called it a “next-generation partnership”, echoing this future-facing outlook. In London, Prime Minister Boris Johnson called it “one of the most complex and technically demanding projects in the world, lasting for decades and requiring the most advanced technology.” The big-ticket item in AUKUS is the fleet of conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines that Australia is acquiring under Pillar I. Yet, in an era of strategic competition, the advanced military-relevant technologies being developed under Pillar II are just as significant; if not more so, given that they will be ready sooner, and indeed be more consequential in strengthening and diversifying the three nations’ military defences.<br/><br/>Vital to the Pillar II project is the availability of critical minerals (CMs), the building blocks of almost all advanced technologies. In the past decade, there has been a tectonic shift in global demand for CMs amid the expansion of technologies that underpin three areas of economic demand: the green transition, advanced consumer goods, and, as reflected in AUKUS, military modernisation. Specifically in Pillar II, there are six ‘workstreams’ of advanced capabilities that have CM inputs: undersea capabilities; quantum technologies; artificial intelligence and autonomy; advanced cyber; hypersonics/counter-hypersonics; and electronic warfare. This article reflects on the centrality of CMs to AUKUS. Although there are number of inputs essential to operationalising the pact – including nuclear technology, military hardware, and, even on a basic level, the availability of skilled labour – Pillar II will not get off the ground without a steady and sustainable supply of CMs. This is where a key obstacle lies: China’s almost complete monopoly of global CM supply chains.