Assessing Geospatial Modeling in Determining Optimal Afforestation Locations for Carbon Sequestration in the Isafjord Region

Iceland was once a country with large forests that covered over a third of the island's total landmass. Over the course of the past thousand years of settlement, the percentage of the country covered in forest dwindled, at some points dropping to less than one percent. Based on this deforestation history, and the potential of reforesting the land to help reduce the impact of carbon emissions, afforestation efforts in Iceland have been underway for the better half of a century. Despite the many years of effort, a lack of data and mapping exists on ideal planting locations, and the factors that impact tree growth, therefore potentially limiting the ability of these planted forests to sequester carbon. A literature review was performed that yielded two sets of factors, growth and exclusionary, important for afforestation with a specific focus on the Isafjord region. Data corresponding to these factors was acquired from a variety of sources of both national and international origin. This data was then combined in ArcGIS 3.1 Pro to produce a model highlighting the ability of the region to be successful for afforestation. Two locations within the study region were then selected as potential afforestation sites. The first of these sites could be useful as an SIT Iceland: Climate Change and the Arctic planting location to help offset program emissions. The second site is far larger and could be useful to the forest service as they plan to plant more trees in the near future. Data was collected to test the accuracy of the model in determining current biomass accumulation in forest plots, but the results were inconclusive due to the lack of accuracy in pre-existing datasets. These findings illuminate the potential for Isafjord to harbor more afforestation projects, as well as the complexities of performing research, and the lack of accurate data, in the region.