Unearthing Risk: Assessing Geospatial Threats from Foreign-Financed Mining Sites to Indigenous Territories in the Amazon Basin

How is territoriality redefined when capital crosses borders—and what does it mean for Indigenous communities? Can risk to Indigenous territories be measured and predicted through the spatial, financial, and governance factors shaping foreign-financed extraction? This thesis assesses the spatial and political dimensions of socio-environmental risk generated by foreign-financed mining projects in the Amazon Basin. It challenges traditional risk assessment models that rely primarily on physical proximity indicators and instead proposes a relational framework that accounts for governance fragmentation, financial opacity, and institutional fragmentation. The project introduces the Amazon Mining-Affected Risk Index (AMARI), a spatially developed risk index integrating spatial data on foreign financial flows (FDI, ODF, and private capital), ecological degradation (deforestation, illegal mining), and Indigenous territorial governance (legal recognition of territories, institutional strength). Drawing on open-source financial intelligence, peer-reviewed environmental impact assessments, and field-based geolocation, the thesis tests five hypotheses related to capital intensity, governance recognition, the source of financing, and buffer modeling. Relative to the AMARI index, findings reveal the significance of production capacity, financial flow types, and the legal recognition of Indigenous territories consistently facing higher composite threats by foreign-financed mining sites. By reframing environmental risk as a function of territorial power and financial architecture, the thesis advances a methodological and conceptual tool for scholarly research and frontline advocacy across the Amazon Basin.