SINGULAR SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF TEMPERATURE MULTIDIMENSIONAL TIME SERIES

In the paper the algorithm of singular structural analysis and forecasting of a multidimensional series by the MSSA method is used. The program was developed, in which the steps of the method for the selection of singular decomposition components were implemented, the analysis and forecast of real time series was carried out. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is increasingly used in the study of time series. Unlike other methods of statistical research of time series, this method is used to study the structure, selection of individual components and forecast of both stationary and non-stationary time series. It does not require an analytical model of the series. In fact, this approach is based on the method of principal components. It is based on the transformation of a series into a matrix and its singular decomposition. After identifying the components of the singular decomposition, their grouping takes place, which leads to the decomposition of the original series into additive components, such as trend, oscillations (periodics), and noise. The SSA method allows you to continue the structure of the time series, thus building a forecast (continuation). An important direction of the development of the SSA method as a method of time series analysis is its generalization for the analysis of multidimensional time series. The method is known as MSSA (Multi-Channel SSA) or E-EOFs (Extended Empirical Orthogonal Functions). In this case, the expected result is the simultaneous decomposition of several series into interpreted components. However, a sufficiently complete theory for MSSA does not exist.