Exploring the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on sustainable development goals 8 and 9

Against the backdrop of deepening globalization and regional cooperation, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has emerged as a key pathway for promoting sustainable development. However, existing research primarily focuses on its macroeconomic impacts, with limited systematic analysis of its mechanisms in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) 8 and 9. This study addresses these gaps by developing an analytical framework that incorporates industrial upgrading, policy responsiveness, cultural identification, and economic dependence. Using a difference-in- differences (DID) model and panel data from Poland, Italy, Slovenia, and Croatia covering the period 2009–2022, the empirical analysis reveals that the BRI significantly advances SDGs 8 and 9 in host countries primarily through promoting industrial upgrading. Further findings show that higher levels of policy responsiveness and cultural identification substantially enhance policy effectiveness, while economic dependence follows an inverted U-shaped curve—indicating that moderate dependence fosters development, whereas excessive dependence introduces risks. Based on these results, this study recommends improving policy responsiveness through joint governance mechanisms, institutionalizing cultural cooperation to enhance identification, and optimizing economic dependence structures to facilitate institutional embeddedness and sustainable development within the BRI framework.