Combined Predictors for the Diagnostic Transition from Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorder to Schizophrenia: A Retrospective Study

Yanyan Lu,1,* Qiang Wang,2,* Xuzhen Liu,1 Shuzhan Gao,1 Sulin Ni,1 Jing Sun,1 Xijia Xu1 1Department of Psychiatry, the Affiliated Brain Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Brain Hospital, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Medical Psychology, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, the Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Xijia Xu, Department of Psychiatry, the Affiliated Brain Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Brain Hospital, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-13739192705, Email [email protected]: Acute and transient psychotic disorder (ATPD), a psychosis frequently diagnosed, can potentially evolve into chronic conditions like schizophrenia (SCZ) and other mental disorders. This study aimed to develop a predictive model based on clinical data to forecast the transition from ATPD to SCZ and to identify the predictive factors.Methods: According to the diagnostic criteria issued by the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision (ICD-10), 396 inpatients diagnosed with ATPD were collected in this study. The Cox proportional-hazards regression model was performed using demographic data, clinical characteristics, and inflammatory markers to identify independent predictors for subsequent diagnostic transition (SDT) to SCZ.Results: During the follow-up period, 43.69% (n = 173) of ATPD patients had their diagnoses revised to SCZ. The multivariate Cox regression analysis identified post-treatment monocyte count, post-treatment monocyte/lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and the presence of schizophreniform symptoms as significant predictors for the diagnostic revision. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (TimeROC) analyses were developed. The AUC value at the 5-year follow-up was 0.728 for combined predictors, 0.702 for post-treatment monocyte count, 0.764 for post-treatment MLR, and 0.535 for the presence of schizophreniform symptoms.Conclusion: The combined predictors had good predictive ability for the diagnostic transition from acute and transient psychotic disorder to schizophrenia.Keywords: acute and transient psychotic disorder, Schizophrenia, inflammation, subsequent-diagnostic-transition, monocyte count, monocyte–lymphocyte ratio