Uncovering the Causal Configurations of Successful Nonviolent Regime Change Movements: A Systems Thinking and Fuzzy Set Analysis

Under what conditions do nonviolent regime change movements succeed? While the literature on nonviolent resistance has shown several variables to be highly correlative in affecting regime change, little research to date has shown which configuration of conditions leads to regime change in differing polities and repressive environments. In this dissertation, Systems Thinking (ST) and fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) are employed to analyze 25 randomly selected cases of nonviolent regime change movements drawn from the NAVCO 2.1 dataset. The principle of equifinality in ST and fsQCA directs the research to explore multiple sets of conditions that can lead to regime change, depending on the situational content. This dissertation operationalizes strategic and systems conditions prominent in the scholarly literature: percentage of participation, diversity of participants, extent of nonviolence, extent of resiliency, extent of repression, extent of authoritarianism, and regime type. The fsQCA output identifies three causal configurations leading to regime change: 1) high levels of diversity, nonviolence, and resilience under democratic regimes; 2) high levels of diversity and resilience, and a low-level participation rate under repressive regimes; and 3) high levels of nonviolence, resilience, and diversity under repressive regimes. This study supports the importance of movement diversity and resilience for regime change. This study challenges the assumption that nonviolent regime change movements do not work well under repressive regimes. Finally, this study challenges the finding in the literature that the relative participation rate of a movement must be large to be successful. This study proposes significant causal configurations for primarily nonviolent movements under democratic rule and repressive regimes of any polity. It also highlights the importance of a commitment to nonviolence as a means and an end – not simply a means to an end – for successful regime change movements.