What Explains State-level Variation in Refugee Resettlement in the United States?

The history of refugee resettlement in the United States reveals an ad hoc system that relies heavily on non-governmental agencies and state social services. Rates of acceptance for refugees vary greatly by state, yet the particulars of refugee placement are under-studied. This thesis seeks to explain why refugees are likely to be resettled in some states more than others–what factors are associated with higher or lower levels of refugee resettlement? Most literature looks at the economic impact from refugees and on refugees or analyzes the political environment that supports (or does not support) them, but refugee resettlement itself–the how and why of placement–is not commonly addressed. Given the importance of economic factors in the construction of the refugee resettlement program and the inescapable political environment in which refugees are settled, it is important to examine each of these elements to fully analyze the system. Thus, the primary research question this thesis seeks to address is: What is the relative importance of political versus economic factors associated with refugee resettlement in the United States? I will perform a regression analysis to answer this question, using data of refugee resettlement patterns in the United States (2012-2021) to discern relevant factors for the outcome variable of refugees per 10,000 residents. Independent variables I will consider include party affiliation of state leaders, income per capita, unemployment rate, and poverty rate. Performing a regression analysis will illuminate patterns across states and reveal contributing factors that have mostly been examined in smaller doses like case studies. I will bolster the results and discussion with details from informational interviews with practitioners working in the field of refugee resettlement.