Fertility trends by birth order in Britain: comparison between England and Wales, and Scotland

This study uses census-linked administrative data to investigate childbearing trends by birth order in Britain over three decades. This is the first study to investigate longer-term changes in fertility dynamics in Britain by birth order and compare parity-specific fertility by country. First-birth rates declined in the 1990s, slightly increased in the first decade of this century and thereafter decreased. Changes in timing of parenthood are responsible for the changes in first-birth rates. Second- and third-birth rates declined in the 1990s, but remained relatively stable in the first decades of this century. Birth intervals have remained unchanged - changes in quantum are responsible for trends in higher-order-birth rates. Trends over time are similar in England and Wales and Scotland, but with significantly lower second- and third-birth rates in Scotland. Changes in population composition by education and ethnicity explain little of the aggregate fertility trends, or differences between Scotland and England. Both countries have seen very rapid declines in first birth rates, especially among low educated women.