Conflict or Collaboration? An Analysis of Water Governance in the Cubango-Okavango River Basin

Challenges related to transboundary water governance are becoming increasingly prevalent as climate change and shifting resource use continue to drive water scarcity around the world. The Cubango-Okavango River Basin (CORB) is a dynamic transboundary watershed that has a complex history of governance and actors. This analysis examines the socio-hydrologic dynamics of the CORB, exploring historical and contemporary water governance throughout the basin, and evaluating the potential for conflict and collaboration among riparian states. Through a comprehensive review of scientific literature, digital resources, and field observations, this study integrates information on governance structures, indicators of stress, and ecological factors to assess stress in the CORB. This paper follows the theory that rapid, unforeseen shifts—rather than static factors—are the primary sources of stress and potential conflict. Key pressures included in this analysis are population growth, land use change, infrastructure development, and climate variability, all of which challenge the basin's governance capacity. This analysis emphasizes the Okavango Delta to underscore the necessity of cooperative water management to preserve biodiversity and community wellbeing amidst growing environmental pressures. By applying information from the past 20 years to the frameworks outlined in the ‘Basins at Risk Model’ (Wolf et al., 2003 and Yoffe et al., 2003) and comparing the forecast from their research to the outlook derived from the recent data, a prediction is made about the state of stress in the basin going forward. Overall, this study provides a account of the CORB’s socio-hydrologic system, offer insights for enhancing collaboration and preventing conflict over shared water resources, and finds the CORB to be a positive example of collaborative transboundary management.