Bridging the Gap: Discrepancies Between Public Flood Risk Perceptions and FEMA Map Designations in the U.S.

Flooding, exacerbated by climate change and human activities, remains one of the most frequent and damaging natural disasters, posing challenges to risk perception and disaster management. Understanding public flood risk perceptions is critical for preparedness and designing effective mitigation policies. This study analyzes discrepancies between public flood risk perceptions—based on a national online survey of 923 respondents—and expert assessments from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk maps. Results revealed that floodplain residents perceive their risk lower than FEMA map designations. Public perceptions frequently diverge from expert assessments, influenced by socioeconomic factors, spatial context, and latent variables derived from Protection Motivation Theory (PMT). For instance, higher perceived self-efficacy was associated with either elevated perceived risk or increased uncertainty about flood risk, compared with expert assessments. Greater perceived susceptibility was linked to increased uncertainty. Respondents living near water bodies were more likely to downplay their flood risk. A lack of awareness about elevated terrain (necessary for avoiding rising flood waters) tends to downplay their flood risk. Older individuals exhibited less uncertainty about their property’s flood risk than younger counterparts. These findings highlight the need for targeted, place-based flood-risk communication strategies that address socio-cognitive and geographical factors. These strategies can reduce perception gaps, improve community preparedness and risk literacy, and strengthen community resilience to flooding. Furthermore, the potential underestimation of flood risk in FEMA flood maps indicates the need for improved map accuracy and localized risk assessments to align public perceptions with expert flood-risk maps.