Assessing adaptive potential using genomic vulnerability and trait-based approaches in white-tailed jackrabbits

Climate change is predicted to drive widespread shifts in species ranges, which makes developing reliable frameworks for estimating and managing biological responses to climate change of critical and basic importance for conservation. Understanding the genetic basis adaptive phenotypes provides a powerful framework to predict the adaptive potential of populations to respond to climate change. In the absence of known genotype-to-phenotype associations, researchers have proposed using genotype-by-environment associations to predict future vulnerability and adaptive potential of populations threatened by climate change. This genome-wide approach offers a powerful alternative to understand the process of local adaptation in the absence of known phenotypes, but also relies on several assumptions that may limit its accuracy and applicability to conservation efforts. Previous research in white-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus townsendii) has dissected the genetic basis of seasonal coat color camouflage and used these inferences to predict the potential for future adaptive responses to widespread loss of seasonal snow duration. However, the extent to which predicted patterns of camouflage mismatch parallel overall adaptive potential and vulnerability is unclear for this species. Here, we compare camouflage-based inferences with an analysis of genomic vulnerability based on genotype-by-environment associations from a range-wide sample of white-tailed jackrabbit genomes. This species’ recent history of population decline and threat of phenological mismatch provides a compelling system to determine how these frameworks differ in their forecast of future adaptive challenges and to assess the feasibility of creating integrated genetic models to help guide conservation strategies for diverse traits and taxa.