Unpredictable tariffs by the US:implications for the euro area and its monetary policy

Were the US to impose large and lasting tariffs on its imports from the EU, the effect on the euro area (EA) would be substantial and far-reaching. We expect the direct impact to be inflationary in the US and contractionary on EA aggregate demand and output. The indirect impact through an appreciation of the dollar (partly already occurred) tends to transfer inflation from the US to Europe. The ECB should be mindful that both deflationary and inflationary influences may ensue, and be ready to adjust monetary policy promptly if necessary to maintain price stability. This document was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 20 March 2025.