Three Essays on the Economic Impact of Climate Variability, Cropping Systems, and Sustainability in Cotton Production

In the first chapter of the dissertation, we investigate the economic impact of various cropping systems and irrigation levels on the management of Verticillium wilt in cotton production. Conducted at the Texas A&M AgriLife Helms research farm, the experimental design utilized 24 different treatments across a circular field historically affected by Verticillium wilt since 2007. This paper analyzes data collected from 2014 to 2021, focusing on Gross Margin Analysis, Fixed-Effects Model with Absorbed Treatment Effects and profit efficiency using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). Results indicate that cropping systems involving continuous cotton with a wheat cover and varying irrigation levels significantly influence yield and profitability. Particularly, systems under 1.5 inches of irrigation in conventional tillage with beds demonstrated the highest yield and economic returns. Sensitivity analysis on loan rates further emphasized the financial viability of specific cropping systems. The study concludes that strategic management of water resources and selection of appropriate cropping systems can substantially mitigate the effects of Verticillium wilt and enhance profitability in cotton production, providing a valuable guide for optimizing agricultural practices in similar environments. The second chapter provides insight on the impact of climate change on cotton production through an indepth analysis on the specific effects of heat stress on cotton yield characteristics. This study aimed to fill that gap by conducting a meta-analysis to assess the impact of heat stress on key cotton yield parameters, including lint yield, boll weight, boll number, boll retention, and seed yield. A systematic search across databases including ScienceDirect, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and PubMed yielded 62 articles, of which 43 were included in the meta-analysis. Using the OpenMEE software, a Random Effects Model (REM) was applied to generate pooled effect estimates at a 95% confidence interval, and subgroup analysis was also performed. The results indicated an overall reduction in all cotton yield parameters due to heat stress. In addition to agronomic effects, the study quantified the economic impact of heat stress, estimating a revenue loss of $2.20 per acre loss for U.S. cotton producers. These findings emphasize the need for adaptive strategies, such as heat-tolerant cotton varieties, improved irrigation management, and climate-resilient policies to mitigate economic losses. Consequently, the study recommends further investigation into the long-term economic consequences of heat stress on cotton lint yield, particularly in the U.S. The third chapter of the dissertation examines the impact of rising temperatures using a multilevel regression model applied to historical climate and yield data (1980–2018) from key cotton-growing regions. The analysis examines how maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and growing degree days influence yield at different growth stages. Results show that a 1°C increase in maximum temperature during the flowering stage (TmaxGS2) reduces cotton yield by 5.5%, leading to revenue losses of up to $219 per acre. Conversely, higher precipitation during critical growth periods increases yield by 183 lb/acre, partially offsetting heat stress effects. Given these findings, adaptation strategies are essential. We recommend the development of heat-tolerant cotton varieties, improved irrigation management, and expanded financial support programs, including climate-based crop insurance. Additionally, optimizing plant timing and adopting precision agricultural practices can help mitigate yield losses. These measures will strengthen the resilience of cotton farming against escalating climate risks, ensuring long-term sustainability. This study provides valuable insights for farmers, policymakers, and researchers working to safeguard cotton production in a changing climate.