The U.S. and Japan: Containing a Rising China?

This research involved investigating the impact that the coherence between international relations (IR) theories and national strategies and policy practice through effective implementation (independent variables) have on China’s perceived vulnerabilities (CPV; dependent variable) using the Cold War, the United States, and Japan case studies. The research focused on how the coherence between these variables could shape CPV and strategic calculations, particularly concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea. Additionally, the research involved analyzing how the modern strategies of conventional deterrence (i.e., the strategy of denial and integrated deterrence) influence CPV. This study was guided by the hypothesis that the degree of coherence between national IR theories and national strategies, effective policy practice through proper implementation, and the combined use of the strategy of denial and integrated deterrence are the main indicators that likely influence China’s behavior in the Indo-Pacific region. A qualitative, inductive, multiple case study design was utilized by examining the U.S.’ decision-making across the Cold War to provide context for the modern competition, and the United States and Japan’s top-level strategies (i.e., National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy) and their corresponding IR theories across different epochs. The first case study spanned the Cold War, and the second two studies spanned the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations for the United States, and the corresponding periods in Japan (20122017, 20172021, and projected 20212025), to account for the variability of the DV across space and time. Comparative analysis techniques revealed causal inferences and patterns that validated the hypotheses. Through a case analysis, this research emphasizes the critical role of the U.S.-Japan Alliance in enhancing regional security. It highlights the necessity of advancing military capabilities, deepening allied integration, and adopting a denial strategy that effectively addresses CPV and the A2/AD strategy to reinforce regional stability in the Indo-Pacific region.