A Technology Scouting and Roadmapping Approach of Future Commercial Passenger Aircraft

Advancements in aircraft technologies such as new propulsion systems, new materials, aerodynamic improvements and better avionic systems are pivotal for fostering a more efficient and sustainable aviation system. This paper proposes a systematic approach with the potential to increase the effectiveness of technology roadmapping, scouting and impact assessment. A technology taxonomy with special focus towards environmental impact assessment also including non-CO2 climate effects of aircraft technologies is proposed. Initially, a database containing aircraft technologies and their vehicle-level impacts is compiled. Subsequently, an aircraft design tool is used to incorporate information from the technology scouting and assess their environmental impact for different reference aircraft across all market segments of commercial aviation. The insights gained from this mission-level investigation framework result in technology trends, outlining the fuel savings for future technologies. The trends further highlight technology combination/portfolio effects for narrow- and wide body aircraft. To give researchers, decision makers and other stakeholders an overview of the impacts of upcoming aircraft technology trends, the results are presented in a roadmap. Furthermore, this review and taxonomy will contribute in laying the groundwork towards holistic environmental impact assessments of aircraft technologies, which need to include specific engine and atmospheric data for investigating aviation’s non-CO2 emissions and effects in the future.