Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Human-Carnivore Conflict in the Tarangire-Manyara Ecosystem, Tanzania

Livestock depredation by large carnivores significantly threatens human livelihoods across the globe, with severe ecological and socioeconomic implications. Economic costs of livestock depredation impact the tolerance for carnivores among communities living alongside wildlife, often straining human-carnivore coexistence. Using geographic and temporal attributes from livestock depredation records (n=406) collected between 2004 and 2023, we identified spatiotemporal patterns of depredation by African lions, leopards, and spotted hyenas in the Tarangire-Manyara Ecosystem in northern Tanzania. We found significant interactive relationships between the number of attacks reported and the season, time, and site of attack; with these interactions differing between the carnivores. To better understand the ecogeographic factors influencing livestock predation, we delved into predictive analysis using a subset of the data (ranging from 2019-2023). We used Maximum Entropy models to predict depredation hotspots for the three predators, in general and separately, at the interface of eleven environmental layers. Across all models, likelihood of livestock predation was higher between Tarangire National Park and Lake Manyara, including Burunge Wildlife Management Area. Terrain topography and distance to protected areas were key variables for depredation likelihood for all the carnivore species. Our results highlight different livestock-predation hotspots for the three carnivores, which seemingly follow the different ecologies and spatial preferences of lions, leopards and hyenas. An understanding of these hotspots could inform strategic efforts towards human-carnivore conflict mitigation in this critical biodiverse area.