How far is too close? : A Spatially Disaggregated Study on the Factor of Distance in the Effect of Violence on Displacement

Displacement is one of the most severe consequences of armed conflict, yet the mechanisms driving when and where people flee remain insufficiently understood. While national-level studies consistently link violence to displacement, they rarely capture the spatial dynamics of how proximity to violence shapes flight decisions. This study addresses the question: How does distance affect the impact of violence on displacement? I develop a theory distinguishing between reactive displacement, triggered by direct exposure to violence, and anticipatory displacement, driven by perceived future threat in more distant areas. Using disaggregated data from eastern DemocraticnRepublic of the Congo (2016–2024), the study applies negative binomial regression models to analyze the effect of violence at varying distances on internal displacement patterns. The results show that direct exposure to violence is the strongest predictor of displacement, while violence in surrounding areas also contributes, though with decreasing intensity over distance. The effect is particularly pronounced for violence targeting civilians, suggesting that perceived threat plays a key role in anticipatory flight. These findings contribute to a more nuanced, spatially grounded understanding of displacement and offer insights for forecasting and humanitarian planning.