Government Trust and Its Influence on Voter Turnout during Wartime

What impact does the public's level of trust in government during wartime have on voter turnout in US elections? Previous research focuses primarily on the impact public trust has on political parties and tends to neglect the impact wartimes may have on these factors. I will argue that during wartime, there is a negative relationship between public trust and voter turnout. Oftentimes, those who find themselves not trusting the government have a stronger desire to vote in hopes of changing the system; in comparison to those who have a high level of government trust, they feel a weaker desire to vote as they trust the current government system to do what's right. War often heightens these feelings of approval and disapproval of candidates, which can potentially explain these patterns in voter turnout. To explore this, I analyze the 1996 and 2008 American National Election Studies post-election datasets to compare the relationship between voter turnout and public trust during wartime and “peacetime.” The logistic regression showed no statistically significant evidence of war significantly impacting people's trust in government and their likelihood to participate in forms of democracy like voting. Alternatively, I explored the impact interest in public affairs would have on the relationship between government trust and voter turnout. This logistic regression revealed that for both years, as interest in public affairs increased, the odds of voting in that year's election also increased. However, in 1996, the "peacetime" year, the increase was more significant, possibly pointing to the idea that the various challenges international conflict poses can deter individuals from participating in democracy and taking an interest in government processes. Overall, this can suggest that the reasonings behind political engagement and interest are multifaceted, and the more factors citizens have to worry about, specifically during wartime, can push them further away from politics.