The Electoral Crisis of "West Coast Liberalism"

West Coast cities are often associated with progressivism and support of the Democratic Party. However, local political shifts have emerged as ideological gaps on the issues have become increasingly visible over the last few years, specifically between “progressive” and “moderate” Democrats. This project focuses on crime and the unhoused as the two major issues driving these shifts. I argue that, one, urban West Coast electorates are targeting their backlash against progressives, but two, that is not necessarily a reflection of the local realities of crime and homelessness. First, I conduct a regional analysis of five traditionally liberal West Coast metropolitan areas (Los Angeles, Oakland, Portland, San Francisco, Seattle) with a difference-in-difference approach. Second, I conduct a local analysis of San Francisco at the census block group level with the same difference-in-difference approach. I augment my statistical analyses with descriptive analyses to contextualize these electoral shifts. My research contributes to the study of local government and is particularly timely given the ongoing nature of political change in West Coast cities.