A Deal Doomed to Fail? The Fragile Prospects of a New Nuclear Agreement

This article analyzes the renewed U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations under Donald Trump’s second presidency, arguing that both sides are engaged less in genuine diplomacy than in strategic posturing. While indirect talks resume in Muscat, Washington demands full nuclear dismantlement, while Tehran insists on its right to enrichment—positions fundamentally at odds. It explores how mistrust, asymmetrical power dynamics, and domestic pressures shape both parties’ behavior. Trump’s dual messaging and Iran’s invocation of resistance narratives suggest that negotiations are aimed more at managing perceptions than achieving durable outcomes. The article concludes that any potential agreement will be weak, short-lived, and more symbolic than substantive.