De ekonomiska konsekvenserna av Brexit : En Syntetisk kontrollstudie

The study analyzes how Brexit has affected the macroeconomic development of the UK byexamining the variables of inflation, export, import, foreign direct investment (FDI), andGDP growth during the period 1995–2023. These variables have been selected to provide abroad picture of the economic consequences. The analysis is conducted using the syntheticcontrol method, where the UK economy is compared with a synthetic control groupconsisting of OECD countries with similar economic characteristics. The method makes itpossible to estimate more reliably how the economy could have developed if Brexit had notoccurred. To ensure the reliability of the analysis, placebo tests and robustness checks havebeen conducted. The tests show that certain results should be interpreted with caution.Previous research has primarily focused on the immediate market reactions after Brexit,whereas this study provides a more long-term perspective on the economic consequences.The results suggest that Brexit has made the UK economy more unstable, where all studiedvariables have decreased except for inflation, export and import who all somewhatoutperformed their synthetic counterparts.