Charting the Unknown : A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of the decision to fund Columbus’ 1492 Voyage

This project adopts the role of a time traveller consultant to structure Queen Isabella’s decision to finance Christopher Columbus’ 1492 voyage. Rather than recounting historical events, it directly engages with the decision-making process as if advising the Queen in her court. Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the study identifies key factors—including financial prospects, strategic benefits, religious motivations, and associated risks—and the uncertainties faced by the Spanish crown at the time and clarifies their role in the analysis. This study applies MCDA to explore how Queen Isabella’s decision-making process could have been structured amidst the uncertainties of her era. By modelling criterion levels and contextualizing priorities of the time, the analysis provides a systematic approach to understanding the factors that shaped the choice to fund Columbus’ expedition, often depicted as an improbable endeavour. The study also demonstrates how the fundamental structure of the decision problem can be visualized using tools such as decision trees, aggregation trees, and Hasse diagrams. This serves as an example of how methods and tools from decision analysis, in particular MCDA, could enrich historical research. Detailed calculations supporting the MCDA framework are provided as a supplementary file, allowing readers to interact directly with the analysis and explore different perspectives. This interdisciplinary approach demonstrates the value of MCDA as a structured framework for systematically assessing complex decisions through historical priorities and uncertainties. The study highlights the potential application of MCDA in many different contexts requiring consideration of often contradictory and multifaceted factors, including modern challenges like sustainable development and public health policy, where diverse priorities must also be balanced effectively.