Analyzing Autochthonous Dengue Transmission in Temperate Regions: Insights from the 2024 Marche Outbreak

As a consequence of climate change, mosquito-borne diseases are progressively expanding into temperate regions, posing new public health challenges. In 2024, the town of Fano, located in the Marche region of Italy, experienced a Dengue outbreak primarily driven by autochthonous transmission [1,2]. This study aims to analyze the outbreak’s dynamics using a stochastic model that incorporates both human infection and vector dynamics. The model is specifically parametrized based on data from the Marche region, providing quantitative insights into local Dengue transmission in temperate areas. Additionally, it compares these dynamics with other non-endemic contexts, where outbreaks are predominantly driven by imported cases.