What could Bulgaria expect after joining the eurozone judging by Croatia’s recent experience? : Comparative Analysis of Two Eastern European Countries

This thesis examines Croatia’s and Bulgaria’s experiences with eurozone integration, focusing on the challenges, progress, and potential lessons Bulgaria can draw from Croatia’s recent adoption of the euro in 2023. By analysing key indicators such as GDP, inflation rates, public opinion, and convergence criteria performance, this study compares the two countries to make an educated guess about the possible effects of euro adoption on Bulgaria. Croatia’s journey, marked by significant integration efforts and economic reforms, serves as a benchmark for understanding Bulgaria’s delayed path to eurozone membership. By using a unique combination of theories - path dependence theory and morphogenetic social theory, the thesis provides a structured framework for assessing historical, structural, and cultural influences on policy outcomes. The findings indicate both similarities and differences in the two countries’ trajectories, underscoring Bulgaria’s need to address inflation, legislative compliance, and public scepticism to achieve a smoother transition to the eurozone. This comparative analysis strives to offer important insights for policymakers and stakeholders in order to ensure Bulgaria’s eurozone accession maximizes potential benefits while also avoiding risks.