Will China Intervene Directly to Protect its Investments in Africa?

Africa presents a uniquely complex challenge for China. Political instability — wars, coups, civil unrest — poses challenges that may undermine China’s peaceful rise and compel it to deploy military and security forces to protect its investments and own economic development. Without the stability provided by market capitalism, democracy, and the rules-based order, China faces a choice between failure or neocolonialism.<br/><br/>Ultimately, Chinese leaders may be forced to choose between the risks of using direct intervention to maintain unilateral control over investments and trusting the Western-backed rules-based order to facilitate market access. If China is labeled a neocolonial power, its long-held noninterference policy would be undercut. But the alternative, leaving Chinese companies to invest based on their own risk assessments and essentially returning to the pre-Belt and Road Initiative “Go Out” policy of the late 1990s, would also carry economic and political risks.<br/><br/>No one knows what Beijing will do if faced with this choice. But African leaders would be wise not to wait to find out. In the meantime, they should work to diversify their economic relationships to avoid becoming victims of Chinese neocolonialism.