Triumph or Treaty: Exploring the Impact of Conflict Termination Outcomes on Refugee Return

Refugee return is a crucial part of ending conflicts and achieving lasting peace. Studies indicate that the dynamics of post-conflict developments influence refugees' decisions to return. However, there are gaps in understanding how the conflict termination influences refugee return rates. My thesis addresses these gaps by examining the impact of conflict termination outcomes on refugee return, using credible commitment and trust-based causal pathways. I argue that peace agreements promote higher return rates by enhancing perceptions of commitment to peace and trust in post-conflict stability among the refugees. Using a global time-series cross-sectional dataset and zero-inflated negative binomial regression with fixed effect (FE) estimator, the findings show that peace agreements, rebel victories, and low-conflict activity correlate with higher refugee return rates, while provisions that improve local political and security conditions are also strong predictors. Nonetheless, this thesis challenges the dominant assumption that peace agreements are uniquely effective by suggesting that return may also be influenced by alternative outcomes that impact security and political changes, even in the absence of conflict resolution. This thesis contributes to the study of conflict termination and forced migration by offering new theoretical, empirical, and practical insights into how refugees respond to the outcomes of conflict termination.