Transforming Road Freight Transportation from Fossil Fuels to Hydrogen: A Case Study for Gotland

Decarbonizing the transportation sector is critical for countries to meet their energy goals, especially in Sweden where transportation accounts for a third of all national emissions. Gotland, a rural island municipality of Sweden with high offshore wind potential presents a complex case for the decarbonization of heavy-duty transportation, due to its reliance on imported fuels. This thesis looks into the technical feasibility of transitioning Gotland’s heavy-duty road fleet to green hydrogen produced through electrolysis powered by offshore wind. It utilizes a series of quantitative calculations based on previous research to estimate what the total hydrogen demand would be, and uses this to calculate the amount of energy required to power an electrolyzer for this production. This information is then used to approximate the total offshore wind power capacity required for a hydrogen fuel transition for road freight vehicles. The results from this thesis show that Gotland’s heavy-duty fleet would need about 3.6 million kg of hydrogen to operate annually. To produce this amount, a PEM electrolyzer with 70% efficiency would need about 169.6 GWh of electricity, which would correspond to a required installed offshore wind capacity of 47.2 MW. A sensitivity analysis was performed, to account for variations in efficiency, capacity factor, and electrolyzer performance, to showcase a best- and worst-case scenario. It was found that under the most optimistic conditions, the required capacity could be as low as 18 MW, and in the worst case could fall around 77.5 MW. Beyond technical conditions and feasibility, this thesis also explores system level considerations necessary for a green hydrogen transition for freight vehicles on Gotland. This includes business models for adoption, policy requirements, environmental aspects, and infrastructure requirements. Although it may be technically feasible, this thesis finds that a transition like this would necessitate significant investment and policy support for infrastructure changes and increased offshore wind production. The findings from this study contribute to the discussions around hydrogen freight transportation and demonstrate the technical requirements for a decarbonized system through the use of green hydrogen produced through offshore wind power.