TREND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF COWPEA (Vigna unguiculata L) PRICES IN YOBE STATE, NIGERIA

In order to aid players in the cowpea industry in making timely decisions in the face of unclear future prices of cowpea, this study's primary goal was to determine the trend and predict future cowpea prices in Nigeria's Yobe State. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) database provided secondary data on the monthly price of cowpea in the study area between January 2016 and May 2023. The analysis was conducted using the Box-Jenkins methodology's ARIMA model and descriptive statistics. The outcome showed that cowpea price trend in January 2016 was at ₦229.05/kg and fluctuated upwards and downwards until December 2020. However, the trend continue rising in January 2021 at ₦243.01/kg and continuously increasing without typically declining up to May 2023. And with respect to the Forecasting, the data' stationarity was tested using graphical and formal tests, and found out that the data was not stationary at level but series remained stationary after applying first order difference. Model selection criteria proved that ARIMA (1.1.0) was the best model for the process. Diagnostic test confirm ARIMA (1.1.0)'s suitability for the forecasting. Seven months projected cowpea market prices were done. The trend and projected cowpea price were in continues increase. In view of these government should implement appropriate measures such as restricting cowpea export and eliminating import taxes of cowpea product in order to stabiles the price.