The Strength of Weak Links : Climate Resilience in the Northern Ireland Nephrops Fishery

Climate change is rapidly reshaping marine ecosystems and disrupting fisheries. Coastal fisheries such as Northern Ireland’s Nephrops fishery (known locally as Portavogie prawns and internationally as Norway lobsters) face mounting pressure to adapt or transform in the face of compounding stressors. This thesis assesses the climate resilience of the Northern Ireland Nephrops fishery using an attribute-based framework that evaluates ecological, socio-economic, and governance dimensions. It explores how interactions among resilience attributes shape the system’s response to six climate-related risks. The analysis reveals several key vulnerabilities, including economic precarity, an ageing fleet, governance fragmentation, and ecological constraints. It identifies how hidden risks to long-term viability arise from abundance, where high Nephrops biomass masks ecological simplification and market entrapment. It also highlights an intensifying “spatial squeeze” created by the intersection of immigration policy, territorial access restrictions, and offshore renewable energy development, further constraining the fleet’s adaptive space. More broadly, it demonstrates how systematically examining climate resilience attributes and their interactions across different climate change impacts can reveal critical weaknesses and opportunities.